Strategy leadership when the endgame is unknown

This week, we focus on an issue that I’m hearing from most on my executive conversations. I suspect it’s impacting you too. It is our 2nd emerging workforce theme linked to AI: executing strategy when your endgame is unknown.

Since AI solutions are still rapidly evolving, the final destination of our strategic organizational changes are still unclear. I will look at what this means in practice, and what you can do about it.

In case you missed last week’s edition on the first shift, read about why we need a multidisciplinary, truly Strategic Project Office in the AI Era. 

The Missing End State of Change

With most strategies, we are clear on what we are changing from, and what we are changing to. But underneath everything going on at the moment, the reality is that the end state of change is still emerging.

This is not another digital change, like a new tech platform. Previous waves of technology were disruptive, but had defined boundaries.

• An ERP, HRIS or CRM (gosh, don’t we love acronyms for new tech systems) had a defined implementation path and a steady state.

• The internet expanded channels and access, but the organizational model was still recognisable.

• Even the industrial revolution, brutal as it was, had clear, fixed, visible improvements. You could see the machine. You could see the output.

With AI, we do not yet see the steady state. It touches almost every knowledge role. It reshapes decision-making itself. It alters how teams are composed, how work is allocated, and how value is created. New business models are emerging. New forms of organisation design are emerging. The role of the human worker is changing in real time.

The Workforce Now Includes Non-Human Decision-Makers

Some leaders are managing teams made up of humans plus AI systems. And we do not even have a universally agreed definition of what an AI agent is.

It is not simply a chatbot embedded in a workflow. I know, I’ve built agents. An agent can operate autonomously, make decisions (eg choose which answer to give a customer), trigger actions across systems, and learn from outcomes over time (eg improve future answers based on customer responses and feedback surveys).

We are redesigning work while the tools themselves are still evolving and learning.

That is different in scale, scope and ambiguity.

What This Means for Leaders

The ambiguity is what unsettles people. Last week, Harvard Business Review reported that 80% of staff reported a strong concern about at least one issue with AI. Next week, I will dive into the topic of managing emotions and fear at scale in the workplace.

But when leaders cannot describe a clear end state, uncertainty expands.

So Shift #2 we need to make is this:

Lead without pretending you know the end state.

Your job is not to manufacture certainty. It is to create stability inside uncertainty.

3 tips to execute strategy when your endgame is unknown

1. Replace end state promises with a direction story

Do not promise a finished picture that you do not have. Instead, state the direction, the non-negotiables, and what you are testing next. Direction builds confidence without faking precision.

2. Make the unknowns explicit

Add a standing slide in your executive pack that describes what is not yet known. Members of The Turbochargers Hub, I will provide you with an example PowerPoint framework of exactly how to do this below. We will discuss in our next Zoom session. When unknowns are named and contained, rumour shrinks and credibility rises.

3. Turn ambiguity into safe experiments

Ambiguity creates risk aversion. Allocate a small fixed % of operating budget to AI workflow experiments. Set expectations that you expect some experiments not to proceed. Keep encouraging experimentation, so you can implement a proportion of these safely.

Shift #1 was your Strategic Projects Office as a structural bridge.
Shift #2 is Strategy Leadership where the endgame is unknown.

Next week, I’ll cover Shift #3: strategy in the AI era depends on managing the emotional climate, not just the execution plan.

PS More Ways to Accelerate your Strategy

Looking to move your strategy forward? Lisa works with selected clients directly to go from strategy to plan to result. Email Lisa.

Up-skill your strategic project people with a bespoke AI workshop. Bootcamp info here.

Subscribe here to ensure you don’t miss this weekly newsletter.

Connect with Lisa on LinkedIn.

About Lisa Carlin

Lisa Carlin is a Strategy Execution Specialist. Most of my work is guiding transformation leaders in B2B Tech and Knowledge Services to design and implement strategic AI programs that deliver tangible results at scale. I accelerate strategy with Culture Intelligence and AI.

Lisa is author of the globally acclaimed newsletter, Turbocharge Weekly, read by 8,000 business leaders.

Lisa’s career includes roles at McKinsey and Accenture, then running her own business since 1999. Over this time she has delivered over 50 implementations with a 96% success rate.